Canada: Is Debt, Real Estate Sinking the Loonie?


For most of the past six years, the Canadian dollar (CAD) closely tracked movements in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.  But from mid-2016, CAD began diverging, underperforming WTI significantly (Figure 1).  And the parting of ways was not the result of a generally stronger U.S. dollar (USD).  The Russian ruble, which also correlates highly with oil prices, has outperformed WTI over the same period (Figure 2).  Both Canada and Russia are major producers of crude oil.  CAD’s divergence from oil may have to do with deeper economic problems: the country’s extremely high levels of debt and overvalued real estate prices.

by Erik Norland via AllFeaturedReports RSS

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